Staring West as the Waters Rise

No distance is comfortable these days. Watching the US elections from this side of the Atlantic makes it clear that some dangerous waters are rising, so the amount of coverage on our own screens and in our papers comes as no surprise. A few weeks ago before the televised presidential debates, many of us were resigned to a Bush victory. Liberal newspapers in America whose editorials reverberated with optimism were sparse. But then something happened. What a difference some prime-time exposure makes…

I feel no desire to go into a deep analysis of the debates and their success in endearing Kerry to a sizeable percentage of undecided voters; there is nothing useful I could add to the acres of coverage. (An earlier flick around the Internet left me feeling depressed when I realised just how staggeringly little I know about the election build-up so far.) However, Kerry's reversal of fortune has galvanised those of us who relish the thrill of the chase rather than the short sharp hit of victory…an inevitable Bush victory would have made for a stiflingly dull October – indeed, as would a Kerry shoo-in, but at least the gloom would have been a product of the tedium of inevitability rather than the overwhelming depression of having to wait four more years for the petulant child-president to be evicted.

A cursory glance at the campaigns makes it clear how the priorities of the campaign engineers, along with the journalists covering those campaigns, are only just beginning to coincide with the priorities of the average voter in the swing states. The key to winning will not rely on impressing media hacks on the subject of Iraq, but will be to prevent any single issue from antagonising too many undecideds. Interviews with these "uncommitted" voters have repeatedly shown that a single domestic issue such as gay marriage will often be crucial in changing their mind, and never mind the overwhelming focus on foreign policy. Most people seem uncomfortable with the what-if questions, such as whether Kerry would have handled the war on terror differently. Rather, they feel happier when concentrating on how their immediate future is going to bear out, particularly in the areas of health, education and taxation. All things nice and close to home.

So this all gives the candidates a firm shove towards the middle ground, unwilling to offend; witness Bush emphasising a newfound "compassionate" conservatism in the third debate as they discussed domestic issues. Bush and his advisors know not to make any rash moves before the election lest the beast turns on him and devours his entire rotten administration whole.

Okay, so perhaps I'm making stuff up and stating the obvious here. Frankly, attempting to make sense of the facts, opinions and misinformation swirling around in the media whirlwind is giving me a headache. So far I have found that by combining analysis from the more sober American newspapers and some to-the-point information from the news wires (Associated Press, Reuters etc), a reasonable picture can be built up.

In the meantime, ignoring the recent polls that put both candidates on equal footing, a democratic pessimist will enjoy watching the figures being crunched here (requires Flash), an interactive map of voting intention. With the Republican leaning states in red, the whole damn thing resembles a severed boar's head dripping in blood. And if Bush wins in November, that would be an apt motif for the feelings most of the world will be experiencing. (see the Guardian) But for now, sit back with a glass of single malt, turn up the radio and watch the waters rise.