The Fear

"God, there's so many polls. I mean, it's like you could just be obsessed with focusing on that rather than the reason to support somebody." – governer Jeb Bush.

Ah, the polls. The online newspapers hum this morning with the latest, conducted by Gallup and which puts Bush in an eight point lead (52-44), taken after the third debate. What are we to make of this? Are the debates destined to have been Kerry's last victory, fading in the mind of voters who have been constantly beaten around the face with the Republican message of fear: "the bastard will raise your taxes"? Putting the Fear into people has been a hallmark of Bush's administration, and their ball-bustin' experience in this field since 2001 may be paying off in spades in these unhinged final days before the election.

However, the reality is what you want to believe from a bunch of numbers cooked up in a less than rigorous way. Kerry has won the most newspaper endorsements… Bush's approval rate has slipped below 50%… Kerry leads Bush by 10 points in 13 key states… the what-ifs are overwhelming, and perhaps unimportant when the election may end up turning on whether, on polling day, Iraq is visibly imploding or not. The Republicans have counted on many voters not comprehending some uncomfortable realities about Iraq, and if in the next couple of weeks the veil is torn away, Kerry will be walking six feet off the ground and Bush will be lying six feet beneath.

Vaguely insulting or disturbing political manoeuvring?